However, it may not be available in practice.

Heated chains more readily traverse valleys in the probability landscape topropose movestofar-awaypeaks,whilethecolderchainsmakethe local steps that explore the current peak or patch.

Toexploitthephenomenon and yet dismiss non-anomalous descent, SARAD performs anomaly detection via autoencoding in the association space.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a failure, of a design which is subject to random perturbations - a problem that can involve extremely rare failures ($P_\mathrm{fail} = 10^{-6}-10^{-8}$). In this work, we propose two BO methods based on Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient, the latter approximating the one-step Bayes-optimal policy for minimizing the logarithm of the failure probability. Both methods incorporate importance sampling to target extremely small failure probabilities. Empirical results show the proposed methods outperform existing methods in both extreme and non-extreme regimes.

Distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) minimises the worst-case expected loss over an ambiguity set that can capture distributional shifts in out-of-sample environments. While Huber (linear-vacuous) contamination is a classical minimal-assumption model for an $\varepsilon$-fraction of arbitrary perturbations, including it in an ambiguity set can make the worst-case risk infinite and the DRO objective vacuous unless one imposes strong boundedness or support assumptions. We address these challenges by introducing bulk-calibrated credal ambiguity sets: we learn a high-mass bulk set from data while considering contamination inside the bulk and bounding the remaining tail contribution separately. This leads to a closed-form, finite $\mathrm{mean}+\sup$ robust objective and tractable linear or second-order cone programs for common losses and bulk geometries. Through this framework, we highlight and exploit the equivalence between the imprecise probability (IP) notion of upper expectation and the worst-case risk, demonstrating how IP credal sets translate into DRO objectives with interpretable tolerance levels. Experiments on heavy-tailed inventory control, geographically shifted house-price regression, and demographically shifted text classification show competitive robustness-accuracy trade-offs and efficient optimisation times, using Bayesian, frequentist, or empirical reference distributions.

Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as the system size grows have been lacking. A critical concern is that hyperparameter estimation may diverge for larger networks, undermining the model's reliability. Formulating the system's evolution in a measure transport perspective, we propose a theoretical framework for estimating hyperparameters with mean-type observations, which are prevalent in many scientific applications. Our primary contribution is a nonasymptotic bound for the deviation of estimate of hyperparameters in inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems with respect to network population size, which is established for a general family of optimization algorithms within a fixed observation duration. While we firstly establish a consistency result for systems with independent nodes, our main result extends this guarantee to the more challenging and realistic setting of weakly-dependent nodes. We validate our theoretical findings with numerical experiments on two representative models: a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model and a Spiking Neuronal Network model. In both cases, the results confirm that the estimation error decreases as the network population size increases, aligning with our theoretical guarantees. This research proposes the foundational theory to ensure that hierarchical Bayesian methods are statistically consistent for large-scale inhomogeneous systems, filling a gap in this area of theoretical research and justifying their application in practice.

Agentic AI systems built on large language models (LLMs) offer significant potential for automating complex workflows, from software development to customer support. However, LLM agents often underperform due to suboptimal configurations; poorly tuned prompts, tool descriptions, and parameters that typically require weeks of manual refinement. Existing optimization methods either are too complex for general use or treat components in isolation, missing critical interdependencies. We present ARTEMIS, a no-code evolutionary optimization platform that jointly optimizes agent configurations through semantically-aware genetic operators. Given only a benchmark script and natural language goals, ARTEMIS automatically discovers configurable components, extracts performance signals from execution logs, and evolves configurations without requiring architectural modifications. We evaluate ARTEMIS on four representative agent systems: the \emph{ALE Agent} for competitive programming on AtCoder Heuristic Contest, achieving a \textbf{$13.6\%$ improvement} in acceptance rate; the \emph{Mini-SWE Agent} for code optimization on SWE-Perf, with a statistically significant \textbf{10.1\% performance gain}; and the \emph{CrewAI Agent} for cost and mathematical reasoning on Math Odyssey, achieving a statistically significant \textbf{$36.9\%$ reduction} in the number of tokens required for evaluation. We also evaluate the \emph{MathTales-Teacher Agent} powered by a smaller open-source model (Qwen2.5-7B) on GSM8K primary-level mathematics problems, achieving a \textbf{22\% accuracy improvement} and demonstrating that ARTEMIS can optimize agents based on both commercial and local models.

Low-grade gliomas frequently present IDH1 mutations that define clinically distinct subgroups with specific prognostic and therapeutic implications. This work introduces a Multimodal Oncology Agent (MOA) integrating a histology tool based on the TITAN foundation model for IDH1 mutation prediction in low-grade glioma, combined with reasoning over structured clinical and genomic inputs through PubMed, Google Search, and OncoKB. MOA reports were quantitatively evaluated on 488 patients from the TCGA-LGG cohort against clinical and histology baselines. MOA without the histology tool outperformed the clinical baseline, achieving an F1-score of 0.826 compared to 0.798. When fused with histology features, MOA reached the highest performance with an F1-score of 0.912, exceeding both the histology baseline at 0.894 and the fused histology-clinical baseline at 0.897. These results demonstrate that the proposed agent captures complementary mutation-relevant information enriched through external biomedical sources, enabling accurate IDH1 mutation prediction.